How accurate are teacher forecast grades?

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How accurate are teacher forecast grades?

31 Mar ’20 Assessment Data for learning Experiments 0

Basic in 2012, I invested a lot of time researching forecasting pupil performance. Specifically CATs and FFT. In 2015, as part of our Improvement Strategy we wanted to feedback to Heads of Department on their prediction accuracy – on a “optimism-pessimism” scale and designed an assessment tool.

Very simplistically, as you can see, variance of one “alpha” grade or 6 points. Though there were significant subject variance. Second, 30-50% pass rate prediction accuracy.

Of course, back 2015 the C/D borderline was a focus point.

I have been party to many an assessment debate of teacher grade predictions and certainly this is a hot topic right now.

Ahead of the Department for Education’s decisions (March 21st 2020), Peter Atherton embarked on his investigation. I am confident he would appreciate your contributions: Accuracy of predictions: Research

Moving forward a week and the Department for Education has outlined its plans for a system of moderated teacher-assessment in England. This presents a real opportunity for the profession to show it can produce reasonable grades through the process of teacher assessment. It would be worthwhile knowing how accurate (not valid) these predictions are? Which takes us full circle and back to Peter’s investigation.

How accurate are teacher GCSE grade predictions in English Language and Maths?

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Well, Peter has shared his provisional results for approximately 3000 Maths and English Language and English Literature result sets below, plus some other interesting analysis.

I know he would really appreciate your support and of course, your data and provided a simple template CLICK HERE to download with instructions within the file of what to do and where to send it back to. Thanks in advance.

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Via @DataEducator

 

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